Are Democrats riding a real political wave—or just enjoying a summer polling sugar high?
Chris and Sean revisit Nate Silver’s FLIPR election model and his latest analysis of an argument first advanced by Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini: summer polling has consistently overstated Democratic performance in recent election cycles. Ruffini found that Democratic polling bias peaked at nearly six points during the summer before narrowing considerably by Election Day. Silver isn’t declaring that history will repeat itself, but he is taking the possibility seriously. (Nate Silver, Patrick Ruffini)
That leads directly to Arizona, where a new Noble Predictive Insights poll—run by Mike Noble, no relation to Sean—shows Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Republican Andy Biggs by 13 points, 48% to 35%, with 12% undecided. Chris and Sean explain why they view that result as an outlier rather than the race’s true position. Other recent polling has shown a closer contest, although Hobbs currently holds a clear advantage. (Noble Predictive Insights)
What do these polls actually tell us? How much faith should we put in August numbers? And what happens once campaigns begin spending real money, defining their opponents and grinding through the final stretch?
If you want to better understand polling, election models and the day-to-day realities of political campaigns, this episode is for you. You might even learn something.
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